My 2008 Electoral College Prediction
Ever since I hung around with grassroots organizers and political science students in college, I’ve enjoyed predicting the outcomes of elections, particularly the Electoral College resulting from presidential elections. I’ve been fairly accurate in the past as well, correctly predicting the 2004, 2000, 1996, 1988, 1984 and 1980 presidential elections. (I thought Bill Clinton didn’t stand a chance in 1992. I even voted a protest vote for him, thinking George H. W. Bush couldn’t possibly lose to him. Boy, was I wrong!)
Even though I’ve been wrong at nearly every turn this cycle (I thought Democrats would never nominate a junior senator with a paragraph of experience over Hillary Clinton, and I thought Republicans would never nominate the co-author of McCain/Feingold, McCain/Kennedy and McCain/Leiberman, not to mention the leader of the “Gang of 14″), I still offer my prediction on how I think the Electoral College results will look on the morning of Wednesday, November 5th. (Please, God, don’t let them string it out again for weeks!)
Update 11/4/2008: Well, it’s obvious I wasn’t entirely accurate. I was wrong about Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. In 20+ years of predicting presidential Electoral College results, this is the worst I’ve ever done.
Comments
Interesting post, Charles.
Curious to find interactive electoral college maps, I found http://www.270towin.com, whose maps aren’t looking as good as yours for Mr. McCain.
270towin.com is where I made that map.
I still believe the bulk of Americans will shake off the insanity and opt instead for mediocrity.
Seriously, I think Obama is getting cocky and over-reaching, and McCain will pull out a squeaker.
Other than Fox News (surprise, surprise), I haven’t found any other electoral college map predictions that lean toward a victory for McCain.
You’d have to be a firm disbeliever in even the slightest accuracy of statistics and probability to predict McCain on November 4th.
Well, Keith, keep in mind that this was first posted over a month ago. Making a prediction one week out isn’t much of a risk, is it?
If I were to do the map today, I might give Iowa to Obama, but I still think Ohio and Florida will end up in McCain’s column.
I concede that an Obama win is likely at this point, but I won’t rule out a McCain win, either.
Hey Charles,
Good for you for keeping up hope. Personally, I’m rooting for Sen. Obama and, despite his overwhelming lead in the electoral college maps, I’m still scared as heck that it could turn.
I’ve never been more emotionally invested in a Presidential election. I’m losing sleep, stressed to the max, and consuming content from news sites and stations like crazy.
Although we’ve cast our ballots here in WA, I can’t wait until Tuesday for results. Pretty sure no matter what happens, Sara and I will be a mess.
May you have a restful next few days.
Leave a Comment